How the Cycle Score Works
A research-oriented framework that turns on-chain data into a single, comparable view of where Bitcoin and Ethereum sit within their historical market cycles.
1. Overview
The Cycle Score is a model-based metric that summarizes where Bitcoin or Ethereum currently sits within its own long-term market cycle. It is expressed as a single number between 0 and 100, updated daily.
The score is built by combining several independent on-chain measurements into one comparable view. Higher numbers reflect conditions that have, historically, accompanied more advanced phases of that asset's cycle. Lower numbers reflect conditions that have, historically, accompanied earlier or more stressed phases.
CycleOnChain does not apply one generic set of fixed brackets to every asset. BTC and ETH are evaluated against asset-specific historical saturation points, reflecting differences in liquidity, network maturity, holder behavior, and volatility structure.
CycleOnChain is a research and analytics platform. The Cycle Score is designed to support your own analysis. It is not a trading tool, a signal, a recommendation, or a prediction.
2. Conceptual Framework
Why market cycles matter
Bitcoin and Ethereum have moved through repeated, broadly recognizable phases over the years - periods of accumulation, expansion, distribution, and correction. These phases are not perfectly periodic and they don't repeat identically, but they do leave structural footprints in on-chain data.
Why on-chain data is useful
Unlike price alone, on-chain data describes how the network is being used: how coins are moving, how long they have been held, how aggregate cost basis is shifting, how realized profit and loss are evolving. These measurements give context that price charts on their own cannot.
Why combining signals helps
Any single on-chain measurement can mislead. A metric that worked well in one cycle may behave differently in the next. By blending multiple, partially independent measurements into one score, the model is less reliant on any single indicator and more resilient to changes in how a single metric behaves.
The Cycle Score is therefore best understood as a composite, contextual indicator - a way to compress many noisy series into one comparable number, not a definitive read on what the market will do next.
Because each network has its own behavioral history, zone thresholds are calibrated separately. For example, Bitcoin's Euphoria/Greed saturation threshold begins at 99.68, while Ethereum's begins at 98.40. The difference is intentional: each threshold is derived from that asset's historical distribution rather than imposed as a universal bracket.
3. How It Works
The pipeline that produces the Cycle Score has four stages. We describe them in general terms; the specific inputs, weights, and transformations are not disclosed.
Data Collection
Daily on-chain measurements for BTC and ETH are collected from established public sources after each chain's UTC daily close.
Signal Processing
Each raw input is cleaned and transformed independently - filtering anomalies, aligning timestamps, and dampening transient noise.
Relative Historical Positioning
Each processed input is mapped onto a common 0-100 scale by measuring where today's reading sits within that asset's own history. BTC and ETH are normalized separately, so the score reflects relative historical position rather than a generic cross-asset bracket.
Score Generation
The normalized inputs are combined according to the model's internal weights, producing a single Cycle Score and a coarse Market Zone label.
The full output for each day is therefore: a Cycle Score (0-100), a Market Zone classification, and the underlying processed inputs available for inspection on the chart page.
4. Visual Explanation
The Cycle Score is presented in three coordinated views.
The score scale
A horizontal gradient running from 0 to 100, marked with a moving needle that shows today's value. The gradient is intentionally not green-to-red. We use a deep-red to amber to neutral to green palette to suggest historical phase, not action. Red is not "sell," green is not "buy."
The color transitions on the bar are dynamic. Boundary points are calculated mathematically from each asset's historical volatility profile and saturation behavior, rather than being fixed at identical score intervals for BTC, ETH, and future supported assets.
The price overlay
The asset's historical price chart with the Cycle Score expressed as a colored band along the time axis. Each day is tinted with the color of its Market Zone, so you can see at a glance which dynamic cycle phase aligned with which periods of price action.
The composite breakdown
A view that shows the underlying processed inputs as separate series under the score, so you can see why the score is where it is on any given day. This is intended as a research surface, not a dashboard for decisions.
The five Market Zones, in increasing order of score, are: Capitulation - Recovery/Breakdown - Growth/Weakness - Expansion/Distribution - Euphoria/Greed. These are descriptive labels for historically observed conditions, not instructions.
5. Interpretation Guide
The score is a description, not a prescription. The notes below describe what each zone has historically tended to align with. They are based on psychological and technical significance, not hard-coded universal brackets.
Historically observed during deep drawdowns, widespread realized losses, low aggregate profitability, and reduced on-chain activity. This zone represents market stress near the lower end of the asset's own historical distribution.
Associated with the early stages of recovery from a major drawdown, or a renewed breakdown if momentum fails. The zone captures a fragile transition in profitability, realized loss behavior, and network participation.
Historically corresponds to the constructive middle phase of past cycles, but can also signal weakening momentum when on-chain conditions deteriorate. This area is often sustained for longer periods than the extremes.
Associated with strong trending periods, broader participation, and increasing valuation pressure. Depending on direction and supporting inputs, this zone may describe healthy expansion or early distribution behavior.
Observed when valuation context, holder behavior, and profitability measures approach historical extremes for that specific asset. For BTC, this saturation region begins at 99.68; for ETH, it begins at 98.40. High scores are not peak markers and they are not predictions of a top.
A few notes that apply to all zones:
- Zones are descriptive, not directional. The score tells you what the on-chain picture currently looks like; it does not tell you whether to act on it.
- Thresholds are asset-specific. A BTC score and an ETH score can share the same 0-100 scale while using different saturation points for zone classification.
- Crossing a threshold is not an event. Scores can move into a zone, retreat, and return, multiple times within the same broader phase.
- History is not a forecast. Every cycle has differed from the previous one. The score will sometimes spend time near historical extremes in ways that earlier cycles did not.
To see how this model behaves in real time, view the Bitcoin Cycle Score.
6. Limitations
The Cycle Score is a model, and like any model it has known limits. Honesty about these is part of the design.
Model uncertainty
Fixed transformations and weights reflect what worked across available history, but the relationship between on-chain data and future price behavior is not stationary. Weights that explained past cycles will not necessarily explain the next one as well.
Data lag and revisions
On-chain data is published with a lag, and some sources occasionally revise prior days as more transactions are processed. Readings near the most recent date are less stable than readings further back.
Sample size
Bitcoin has a short history compared to traditional assets, and Ethereum's is shorter still. Any conclusion drawn from "every prior cycle" is, in practice, drawn from a handful of cycles.
Regime changes
Macro conditions, regulatory environment, market structure (ETF flows, derivatives, custody patterns), and protocol-level changes can alter how on-chain metrics relate to price. The model cannot detect such regime changes in real time.
Single-asset scope
The score describes the asset it is computed on. It does not capture cross-asset effects, broader risk-asset behavior, or the macroeconomic backdrop. The BTC Cycle Score and the ETH Cycle Score are computed independently and should not be directly compared as if on a shared scale.
We update the methodology and the model when there are reasons to. Material changes will be noted on this page.
7. Final Disclaimer
The Cycle Score, the Market Zones, and all related visualizations on CycleOnChain are provided for informational and research purposes only. They are not financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, signals, recommendations, or predictions. Past on-chain patterns do not guarantee future results. Crypto markets are volatile and you can lose some or all of your money.
You are solely responsible for any decisions you make. Always do your own research and consult a licensed advisor in your jurisdiction before acting on anything you read here.
See also: Full Disclaimer - Terms of Service
Last updated: [Effective Date] - For questions: hello@cycleonchain.com